September Month Analysis Report: Nifty forms 'Bearish pattern' on monthly charts; what others?

September Month Analysis Report: Nifty forms 'Bearish pattern' on monthly charts; what others?

IL&FS-led liquidity fears in NBFC segment, rising crude oil prices and rupee volatility caused selling pressure in the market.

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The market continued its southward journey for a third consecutive day on Friday and closed in the red for eight out of last nine sessions. The Nifty50 attempted positive opening again but failed to hold the upside and remained lower for a major part of the session on last trading day of September month, dragged by metals, IT and auto stocks.

The index closed far below 11,000 levels, forming bearish candle on the daily charts.

In fact, the month of September was like a nightmare for the market as the Nifty lost 6.4 percent, forming a long bearish candle which resembles a Bearish Engulfing pattern on the monthly charts. IL&FS-led liquidity fears in NBFC segment, rising crude oil prices and rupee volatility caused selling pressure in the market.

The Nifty50 managed to open higher above psychological 11,000 levels but wiped out all gains in the first few minutes of trade. The index managed to rebound and hit an intraday high of 11,034.10 but that recovery again sold into and it a day's low of 10,850.30, which is the crucial support for next week, experts said.

The index finally closed 47 points lower at 10,930.50.

"Nifty50 continued its wild swings in both directions before signing off the session with a bearish candle which has a slightly longer lower shadow suggesting decent recovery from intraday lows," Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research & Trading Advisory, Chartviewindia.in told Moneycontrol.

On monthly charts, he said it has registered a long bearish candle which resembles a Bearish Engulfing pattern. "As current sell-off from the highs of 11,760 levels in four weeks of continuous fall brought down the indices into oversold levels from where some pullback can't be ruled out going forward which should be ideally utilized to create fresh short positions as a medium-term trend of this market appears to be down."

He believes strongly in the indices shall not be expected unless Nifty50 closes above 11,170 levels. "On the downsides, once recent lows of 10,850 are decisively breached the downswing shall initially get extended towards 10,650 kinds of levels," Mazhar said.

India VIX moved down by 1.24 percent to 16.71 levels. It has spiked by 9.36 percent this week while up by 35 percent in this month. Rising volatility suggests that bears are holding the tight grip on the market, experts said, adding option band signifies a wider trading range in between 10,800 to 11,171 zones.

Options data is scattered at all the strikes as it's the beginning of the October Series. On the options front, maximum Put open interest (OI) is at 11,000 followed by 10,800 strikes while maximum Call OI is at 11,500 followed by 11,200 strikes. Put writing is at 11,000 followed by 10,800 strikes while Call writing is at 11,300 then 11,200 strike.

"The Nifty has been making the lower top - lower bottom formation from last four weeks and corrected by around 900 points from its life-time high of 11,760 marks," Chandan Taparia, Associate Vice President | Analyst-Derivatives, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said.

He further said now till it remains below 11,050-11,080 zones, overall weakness could continue towards 10,850 then 10,750-10,700 zones whereas on the upside medium term hurdles are seen at 11,080 and 11,171 zones.

Bank Nifty remained highly volatile throughout the session and traded in the range of 24,900 to 25,355 zones. It formed a Doji Candle on a daily scale and formed a Bearish Candle on the weekly scale with lower top – lower bottom formation.

"Now till it holds below 25,500-25,650 zones, it could extend its losses towards 24,650-24,500 zones," Taparia said.

Source:- Moneycontrol

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